BEGINNING OF EW VOLUME 12, PART THREE ENVIRONMENT AUSTRALIA. Australian Prime Minister Paul KeatingÕs government will consider a $900 million greenhouse-gas tax to help rein in the countryÕs budget deficit this year. The measure is one of a number of tough reforms intended to help cut AustraliaÕs greenhouse-gas emissions. The country is not otherwise expected to reach its goal of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2000. In light of the 6.4 percent economic growth rate, both Keating and Australian Treasurer Ralph Willis have promoted a carbon tax as part of a strategy to slow the economy. Senior government sources stressed that the first issue was whether fiscal policy should be adjusted to help contain runaway demand. Over the coming weeks, Envi- ronment Minister John Faulkner will work on a proposal to split the $900 million in revenue among spending on the environment, cutting greenhouse-gas emissions and reducing the budget deficit. The Cabinet authorized Faulkner to con- struct an integrated package of reforms to ensure Australia cuts its greenhouse-gas emissions in time for the March 1995 Climate Change conference in Berlin. CANADA. Canadian provincial and municipal officials have called for an environmental assess- ment of the Ontario Hydro nuclear power plant in Pickering, Ontario. A conduit transporting heavy water at the plant burst recently spilling more than 100 tons of radioactive water into a contain- ment room and causing a shutdown at one of the facilityÕs eight reactors. According to a statement from the province-owned utility, no radioactivity was released into the environment and no workers were exposed to excess radiation. A utility spokesman said the incident occurred when Òone of four heat-transfer valves unex- pectedly opened,Ó an Òextremely uncommonÓ occur- rence. The valves are designed to open in case pressure builds up to dangerous levels in the reac- tor from an accumulation of steam or water, said Norm Rubin, director of Energy Probe, a nuclear watchdog group. CHILE. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) poses Ògrave threats to the integrity of the environmentÓ of Chile and will worsen its already serious pollution problems, charged Greenpeace recently. NAFTA, which Chile is due to join in 1996, Òwill make more acute the serious environmental problems that afflict this country,Ó according to a statement from the environmental groupÕs Santiago office. The United States, Canada and Mexico formally invited Chile to start trade talks in April to join NAFTA and become a full member by mid-1996. ÒThe anxiously awaited invitation. . .has put Chile on the road to a model of economic integration that is fraught with grave threats to the integrity of the environment,Ó said the statement. Greenpeace, which is fighting everything from smog in Santiago to coastal pollution, joined by local labor unions, is among the few sectors of Chilean society to express strong opposition to NAFTA. The government and ChileÕs exporters say NAFTA will help ChileÕs economy. However, Greenpeace contends that debate on NAFTA in Chile is being conducted in a Òsocial and environ- mental vacuumÓ that will be lifted only by an Òauthentic representation of citizensÕ interests and concerns in talks with Canada, the United States and Mexico.Ó FRANCE. It was something of a surprise that among the stars of the 12th International Electric Vehicles Symposium held recently in Anaheim, California, was a large contingent of French exports. An ongoing test of electric vehicles (EVs) in the small French city of La Rochelle has yielded what manufacturers term Òspectacular resultsÓ and prompted 80 other French cities to volunteer as test locations. France is fertile coun- try for EVs because the majority of its electricity comes from cheap nuclear power, while gasoline costs more than triple U.S. prices. In order to spur production, the French government has pledged to subsidize the higher cost of EVs, which can be up to $4,000 more than equivalent gasoline-powered models. Jean-Yves Helmer of PSA Peugeot Citroen said EVs could be incorpor- ated into a strategy the company is debating for a possible re-entry into the U.S. market. The four Japanese auto companies that are required to offer zero-emissions cars in California by 1998 also showed prototype EVs. Though some prototypes had not been shown before in the United States, the Japanese auto makers did not announce any Òprovocative strategiesÓ to comply with the California mandate. The models shown were mainly small station wagons used for deliv- eries in Tokyo. INDONESIA. After many years of negotia- tion, Exxon has completed details of its $40 bil- lion agreement to develop IndonesiaÕs giant Nat- una natural gas field. Fritz Voight, Exxon vice president for gas, dismissed industry rumors that key details of the deal signed in Jakarta with Pertamina, the Indonesian state energy company, still need to be resolved. He said Exxon consid- ered the agreement complete and Òthere is no need for further negotiation.Ó A formal signing of the contract will take place this year. Natuna, which has been the subject of negotia- tions since 1980, will be ExxonÕs first big foray into the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market in Asia. The field, located in the Natuna Sea about 800 miles north of Jakarta, is the largest undevel- oped hydrocarbon resource in Southeast Asia. The Naturna field is equivalent in size to the NorwayÕs Troll gas field, the largest in Western Europe. The timing of the Natuna deal has surprised many industry executives. They say the persis- tence of relatively low oil prices undermines the economic viability of such long-term, capital- intensive projects. Demand forecasts for LNG vary widely. In addition, a number of existing LNG plants that supply Japan and the other large Asian markets plan to expand capacity, while Middle East pro- ducers such as Qatar also have embarked on large- scale LNG projects targeted at Asia. Voight agrees there is little need for additional LNG supplies in Asia up to the end of the decade and that ExxonÕs demand forecasts for Japan are Òslightly more optimisticÓ than those of the Tokyo government. But he denies there is a danger of LNG surplus. Exxon believes there will be a Òsignificant needÓ for Japan to increase its LNG imports for power generation between 2000 and 2010, the period in which Natuna is due to come on stream. The company predicts demand will grow also in Taiwan and South Korea. In addition, said Voight, China is likely to become an attractive market for Natuna gas. He said it was impossible to give a start-up date for the project until Perta- mina signs up an initial buyer. ITALY. In the World Health OrganizationÕs (WHO) European Region, more than 100 million people each year use salt-water and fresh-water beaches for their recreation. Naturally, they want to be sure that they can enjoy their beach games or water-sports without the risk of falling ill from diseases caused by contamination or pollution. However, different countries have diverse ways of measuring water quality standards. Most of them focus only on swimming and bathing as the main activities, and limit themselves to checking only the bacterial contents of the water. The ÒnewÓ countries of Eastern Europe are wondering what standards they should adopt. The Mediterranean Action Plan - an initiative covering 17 coastal states and involving the U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP) as well as the WHO Regional Offices for Europe, Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean - had laid down the microbiological basis for new, more comprehen- sive guidelines. Now the WHO Regional Office for Europe is developing broader guidelines for the health-related monitoring of salt and fresh water as well as recreational beaches. Dr. Bent Fenger, water and waste scientist at the Rome- based WHO European Center for Environment and Health, comments: ÒRecreational use does not begin at the waterÕs edge. Beaches themselves are just as important, and guidelines are needed to evaluate their quality as well. Not only that, but service facilities and amenities such as toilets and food-vending places have a health significance that needs to be considered.Ó The guidelines will also cover aspects that have hitherto received little attention. Vacationers want to swim and play in water that is free from risk of infection and also does not have bad odor, look cloudy, taste foul or have oil, scum or litter floating in it. Then there are the physical charac- teristics of the bathing area. Is the bottom sandy or have sharp rocks? Is there broken glass or rusty cans? Is it flat, sloping gradually or drop suddenly into deep water? The guidelines will provide clear explanations of what constitutes quality and offer practical advice on how to achieve it. ÒOur final customers are the people who use these recreational resources,Ó says Dr. Fenger. ÒWe want to send a clear message to them about what WHO as a health organization recommends as good recreational quality.Ó RUSSIA. Environmentalists and nearby coun- tries are concerned by nuclear safety threats posed by RussiaÕs Arctic port city of Murmansk and the surrounding Kola Peninsula. The Murmansk fjord is home to the Russian Northern Fleet and stores 71 obsolete nuclear submarines, notes the Norwegian environmental group Bellona, as well as a nuclear power plant regarded as Òone of the most unsafe in the world.Ó Using Western esti- mates, Bellona charged that Murmansk harbors Òpoorly maintainedÓ nuclear-powered warships, a nuclear test site, ÒricketyÓ ships storing radioactive waste and up to 2,000 nuclear warheads. Bellona also estimated that Òtwo-thirds of the nuclear waste ever dumped in the worldÕs oceans lies off the Kola.Ó Norway has installed radiation detectors in its northern provinces near the Rus- sian border to give early warning of disaster. While the Norwegian environmentalists fear that fire or the sinking of a storage ship could trigger a major nuclear accident, Murmansk governor Yeveny Komorov contended Òthere wonÕt be any atomic catastrophes in this area.Ó Komorov argues the danger is posed by the United States and charges that a U.S. nuclear submarine intruded into Russian waters off the Kola recently risking the possibility of a collision. RUSSIA. Russian papermaking company Khimlesprom and East European-American non- profit group Ecologia recently began experiment- ing with RussiaÕs first office-paper recycling project. So far, more than one-and-a-half tons of waste have been collected. The source? The U.S. Embassy and the Russian environmental organiza- tions that are Òalready in the habit of sorting and whose employees may welcome environmentally friendly products.Ó Khimlesprom recycles the office paper and sells it back to the participating organizations. Ecologia program director Oleg Cherp sees the venture as a Òway to close the recycling loop,Ó saying, ÒFortunately or unfortunately, Russian businessmen copy a lot of things from the West. . . So I think they will copy this attitude to recycled products.Ó If enough Moscow offices buy the recycled paper, Ecologia will pull out of the venture, leaving office paper recycling to expand or contract with the market. PolandÕs Pre-election Problems The former electrician and Solidarity trade union leader who has been the president of Poland since 1990, Lech Walesa, faces an election this autumn that he is determined to win. Already he is cam- paigning - in his normal bellicose manner. When the year began, Walesa declared that he would not approve higher rates of income tax [21, 33 and 45 percent] set for 1995 and urged his countrymen to follow his example and pay according to the 20, 30 and 40 percent rates of 1992. At the same time he refused to approve the tax laws pending a constitutional court ruling, Walesa said that he would use his veto against this yearÕs budget and lashed out at Prime Minister Waldemar Pawlak, leader of the Polish Peasant Party (PSL) and the left coalition government, over his refusal to accept the presidential nomination of Zbigniew Okonski to the vacant post of defense minister. Yesterday, Walesa suffered a setback. The court ruled the tax laws were constitutional. PawlakÕs choice for the defense portfolio is Longin Pastusiak, an academic who is a member of the ex-communist Democratic Left Alliance (SLD). WalesaÕs reservations are related to Pastu- siakÕs pre-1989 publications in which he was highly antagonistic towards the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the United States. This controversy provides Walesa with yet another issue for attack. Yet the governing coalition threatens to bypass the Constitution and make Pastusiak ÒadministratorÓ of the Defense Ministry - a post that does not require presidential approval. Yet another constitutional crisis emerged this month when Walesa refused to accept the resigna- tion of Foreign Minister Andrzej Olechowski though Prime Minister Pawlak did. The court ruled yesterday that officials cannot hold two paid public offices. Olechowski heads the state-owned Bank Handlowy. In typical fashion, the president said that he would have dismissed Pawlak Òsix months agoÓ if he had the constitutional power to do so. He added, ÒPawlak is young and lacks experience and we harmed him by giving him the post he now holds. He should be given a holiday.Ó A non-sympathetic observer in Warsaw reports that Walesa is deliberately working to engender a series of pre-election crises that will enable him to portray himself as the indispensable man needed to restore stability. In the process, Walesa is using every populist trick in the book to dis- credit potential opponents. The Walesa tactics at this stage are working as he wishes. Attacked by his former Solidarity colleagues for his autocratic tendencies and writ- ten off by the trade unionists as a political has- been, President WalesaÕs popularity ratings last year slumped to an all-time low of 5 percent. Today, however, opinion polls show his approval rating has risen to 13 percent and is still climbing. Lack of strong opposition candidates could ensure a Walesa re-election victory. The anti-communist right has such candidates as Adam Strzembosz, Jan Olszewski and Alicija Grzeskowiak - but their polls show that they could muster only some 28.5 percent of the vote. Walesa is having success recapturing support among the rank-and-file members of the Solidar- ity movement, his original base. While Solidarity remains deeply divided, a majority of its members again backs the president, as do members of the Nonparty Bloc for the Support of Reforms. The elected left coalition government contends that PolandÕs problems stem only from the post- Communist years 1989-92. Walesa maintains that the countryÕs present economic and political diffi- culties have their origins under communism from 1945 to 1989. At the yearÕs end, Walesa criticized the Pawlak performance on market reform, saying Òat the current pace, the effects will take over 100 years to see.Ó He stated that by applying the experience of other countries, Poland should complete the transformation within ten years. Asked if he regards the current government as post-Communist, Walesa said that at the economic level the government has no choice but to direct the development of a market economy. However, where mentality is concerned, he said, the current ruling elite is still of the old guard. Opinion polls show Lech Walesa still trails the man expected to be his main challenger, SLD leader Aleksander Kwasniewski, who now has a 19 percent rating - but that is a drop of 5 percent in a month. In a Kwasniewski-Walesa contest, the SLD standard bearer could count on support from his SLD, and probably from the Union of Labor (10 percent) and PSL (14 percent). Walesa will be able to focus his campaign on KwasniewskiÕs political past. As Russia becomes more totalitarian, such a linkage could be devas- tating. Furthermore, Walesa would be battling on terms of his chosing - defending his countryÕs new-found democracy against communism. Published by TMI Print. P.O. Box 1651, Washington, DC 20013. (410) 366-2531. Fax: (410) 366-6107. Editor: John Rees. Managing Editor: Martha Powers. Foreign Editor: Karen Damha. Senior Editor: Robert Vollmer. Staff Writer: David Rhodes. Researcher: Erna Wollert. Editorial Researcher: Bonnie Ebling. ISSN 1049-9784 Copyright 1995. END OF EARLY WARNING REPORT VOLUME 12.